The UK’s vote to come out of the European Union surprised many, not least those that voted for it. The implications are just starting to be worked out but what is already clear is that politics and political leadership have changed, forever.
Mrs May’s new government is trying to decide what Brexit means beyond just ‘Brexit means Brexit’ or ‘coming out of the European Union’. There are a whole series of ‘big’ questions that need to be answered around continued membership of the Single Market and immigration and then a whole series of ‘smaller’ questions around employment rights, environmental legislation as well as issues for specific business sectors. Actually, none of the questions are that ‘small’.
But what is very clear is that strong political leadership is needed. The people have voted for the government to do something so instead of Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David Davis having a turf battle over who does what and which civil servants sit where, they need to get on with mapping out what the new Britain looks like. Mrs May has to ensure that the three Brexiteers do not end up squabbling and that someone is in total charge.
The whole Brexit process needs smart people and, ironically given some of the comments made during the EU referendum campaign, experts. The government and officials simply do not have the skills required to negotiate our way out of the EU and do the trade deals required. Outside help is being sought and being brought in.
The politicians are also, so far, not being clear about the timescales involved. Once triggered the now infamous Article 50 process will take up to two years. But when that will be triggered is less clear. Early 2017 looks most likely but that assumes the government will simply decide what it wants and gets on with it. That does not include any period of public reflection or feedback. That is to say nothing of the trade negotiations that can each take 7 to 10 years easily. A ‘straight’ trade deal could be more straightforward but start trying to protect industries or consider human rights or labour relations issues and the level of complexity increases exponentially.
If the Labour Party leadership process tells us anything, it is that people want to be involved. Political engagement and activism has been heightened by both Corbyn’s leadership and the Brexit vote. Membership of political parties is on the rise and community activism continues to increase as well.
Political engagement is the new norm but that needs transparency as well. Government has traditionally been less good about letting people know what is going on and what it is up to. That has to change if the engagement is not to be stifled. If it is then disillusionment sets in. That could lead to complete disengagement or a belief in the potential power of more extreme political parties.
So government is expected to listen to the electorate, especially on Brexit. Politicians keep reciting the refrain, ‘the people have spoken’. A failure to deliver would have severe implications.
We also though need to be aware of the potential dangers of the methods of Brexit campaigning as well and the effect they could have on politics. The open courting of controversy, the use or mis-use of statistics and the dismissal of ‘experts’ could lead us to a dark political place. The £350 million for the NHS is now a claim that no-one will now stand beside. The cost of EU membership was widely derided but supporters just kept repeating it. The impact of the economy (from both sides) varied hugely and both sides are still claiming they are right – it appears to be more about timings.
Strong political leadership to deliver Brexit seems to be the call but with the chance to be engaged. If that means putting a final deal to the British people in a General Election then we could all be voting earlier than expected.
That might just depend on how strong Mrs May’s political leadership is.
